Capacitor Lead Times For December Point Toward a Shifting High Tech Economy

Shifts in lead times for specific sub-components in the capacitor product groupings for December 2010 suggest a continued downward market trend for mass produced components consumed in digital electronics such as computers, handsets and TV sets; but an upward market trend in components consumed in power electronics.

December 2010 Capacitor Lead Time Update:

During the month of DECEMBER 2010, lead times for capacitors, otherwise known as the time it takes in weeks for a component to leave the factory and reach the customer, decreased for the third straight month- dropping by 6.2% to 20.4 weeks, but certainly moving in the opposite direction that the lead-time index has demonstrated all year. A 10% drop in lead times associated with tantalum capacitors, which have demonstrated extended lead times all year over fears of materials shortages, was the largest influencing factor in the overall drop in lead times for capacitors for the month of December 2010. Lead times for DC film capacitors, which have demonstrated extended lead times also due to a tightness in raw materials supply, dropped by 8.9% in December on a month-to-month basis. Lead times for ceramic capacitors dropped by 1.17% in December; while lead times for aluminum capacitors remained unchanged. On a trending note, and when viewed over an extended period of time, DC film capacitors and aluminum capacitors continue to trend upward pointing toward increased demand from the power and industrial segment; while tantalum, extended all year, and the most difficult dielectric to obtain, has relaxed its lead times again in December. Ceramic capacitors have been trending very stable over the extended view of lead times for the 2010 year.

Figure 1.1- Lead-Times For CAPACITORS BY DIELECTRIC (In weeks): 2010

Source: Paumanok Publications, Inc. All Rights Reserved- Capacitors: World Markets, technologies & Opportunities: 2011-2015 ISBN #0929717023

December: Capacitor Lead Time Trends By Dielectric: 2010

Tantalum Capacitors: December Lead Times: 2010

Lead times for tantalum capacitors, DECREASED for a second straight month as net new demand for the hard to find component slackened. Lead times for tantalum capacitors dropped by 10.44% marking the largest month-to-month decline in lead times for tantalum capacitors all year. Lead times for all types of tantalum capacitors regardless of type and configuration (or cathode type) declined. Lead times for molded case A chip and molded case C chip showed the largest drop in lead times for November. The primary end-markets for tantalum capacitors are computers, wireless handsets, video camcorders, digital cameras, automotive subassemblies and specialty electronics.

Figure 1.1 (A)- Lead-Times For TANTALUM (Ta205) CAPACITORS BY Case Size: 2010 (In Weeks}

Source: Paumanok Publications, Inc. All Rights Reserved- Capacitors: World Markets, technologies & Opportunities: 2011-2015 ISBN #0929717023

DC Film Capacitors: December Lead Times: 2010

Lead times for DC Film capacitors DC film capacitors are moving counterintuitive to market conditions are indicative of unusual factors influencing the supply chain. In this instance according to primary sources- it is a materials shortage related to ultra-thin metallized plastic film. The primary end-markets for DC film capacitors are power supplies, lighting ballasts and other line voltage related and specialty electronic equipment. In December we saw an increase in lead times for axial leaded designs, which implies movement in the lighting ballast industry. Snubbers, film chips and radial leaded designs relaxed in overall lead times in December, but remained at historically high levels- especially for snubber type capacitor capacitors used in power and industrial electronic systems.

Figure 1.1 (B)- Lead-Times For DC Film CAPACITORS BY Type: 2010 (In Weeks}

Source: Paumanok Publications, Inc. All Rights Reserved- Capacitors: World Markets, technologies & Opportunities: 2011-2015 ISBN #0929717023

Aluminum Capacitors: December Lead Times: 2010

Lead times for aluminum electrolytic capacitors, remained largely unchanged in December and November, after a substantial decline in October. Lead times for aluminum capacitors show a shift toward large capacitor demand from the power and industrial segment- and a slowdown in demand from the digital electronics segment. Aluminum capacitors have the unique distinction of being consumed in both electronic and electrical circuits, and therefore end product markets include TV sets, stereos, computers, power supplies, line voltage equipment and a variety of specialty end-use markets. In the power electronic side of the equation, aluminum capacitors are critical parts of power transmission and distribution equation and are critical components for use in power inverters. They are also critical components for motor start applications.

Figure 1.1 (C) Lead-Times For Aluminum Electrolytic CAPACITORS BY Type, By Month: 2010

Source: Paumanok Publications, Inc. All Rights Reserved- Capacitors: World Markets, technologies & Opportunities: 2011-2015 ISBN #0929717023

Note the lead time extension for snap-in aluminum and large can aluminum capacitors, leading us to believe that there is increased demand coming from the power and industrial segment of the market in the fourth quarter of CY 2010.

Ceramic Capacitors: December Lead Times 2010

Lead times for ceramic capacitors DECREASED again in December with the noted shift in the high capacitance MLCC, which had been steady all year; but trended downward in December, and the chart below reveals that ceramic capacitor lead-times have eased up steadily since June 2010 (since added capacity came on line in Korea and Japan at that very same time). The one product line- disc ceramic capacitors, which are used in high voltage power applications reveals activity in the power markets that is moving counterintuitive to the general mass markets in consumer electronics (computers, handsets, and TV sets all declining market demand in December continuing the general downward trend in digital electronics that we now expect to last through March 2011).

Note the largest case sizes have had longer lead times. This corresponds with higher CVg ceramic chip capacitors; which we also show as a separate line item in the table above and this indicates that higher CVg ceramic capacitors have much longer lead times when compared to the traditional lower picofarad MLCC. Overall however, the supply chain for ceramic capacitors, even though extended beyond its usual lead time levels of 9 weeks; are more readily available than the other dielectrics.

Specialty Ceramic Capacitors include a combination of unique configurations and types; including array, axial, radial; and application specific types for high voltage and high frequency applications; and is usually a reflection of demand in defense, medical, oilwell, mining and laboratory electronics. Please note that movement in this segment of the market in November and December 2010 suggests positive upward trend in power electronics market segment.

Figure 1.1 (D)- Lead-Times For CERAMIC CAPACITORS BY Case Size and Configuration, By Month: 2010

Source: Paumanok Publications, Inc. All Rights Reserved- Capacitors: World Markets, technologies & Opportunities: 2011-2015 ISBN #0929717023

Disclosure Requirements for Mining and Energy Companies to Impact Passive Component Supply Chain- July 2010

Disclosure requirements for mining and energy companies included in the newly enacted U.S. financial reform law should become a global standard for corporate transparency, the Obama administration said on Friday, but an Australian resources company focusing on Africa warned that it is likely to squeeze tantalum supplies and increase prices.

“The United States is committed to working with other countries to ensure the implementation of similar disclosure requirements in other financial markets and will make this a priority in the year ahead,” the White House press secretary said in a statement.

Administration officials noted that the reform law signed by President Barack Obama on Wednesday included what was described as “a landmark provision” requiring energy and mining companies registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to disclose how much they pay to foreign countries and the U.S. government for oil, gas and minerals.

They called the provision “an essential tool” for promoting transparency in the oil and mineral sectors. “The legislation will immediately shed light on billons in payments between multinational corporations and governments, giving citizens the information they need to monitor companies and to hold governments accountable,” the press secretary’s statement said.

“It will shine a sustained light on the relationship between corporations and governments in the oil and mineral sectors, and make impossible the kind of back-room dealings that cost taxpayers in lost royalties,” the statement continued.

Activists campaigning for restrictions on “conflict minerals” and “dirty deals” for resource extraction with other governments claimed victory following the signing and called the law a “major success” and an “incredible victory.”

The legislation requires the Securities and Exchange Commission to within nine months write regulations implementing public disclosure of payments to the U.S. or foreign governments for commercial development of oil, natural gas and minerals.

Other provisions requiring that manufacturers using “conflict minerals” from the Democratic Republic of Congo and neighboring countries will also be required to report to the SEC on their supply chains and be subjected to independent audits were cited by Globe Metals & Mining Ltd., West Perth, Western Australia, in warning Monday that the new law is likely to raise tantalum oxide prices.

“The ‘conflict minerals’ provisions have major implications for the tantalum industry and are likely to further constrain the already tight supply of raw material throughout the entire supply chain,” the company said in a six-page market update, noting that the law would require American companies to submit annual reports to the SEC on use of tantalum, tin, tungsten and gold sourcing.

The restriction is aimed mainly at identifying metals sourced from conflict areas in the Democratic Republic of Congo and adjoining countries. The company said that it was likely that the safest and easiest course for major consumer electronics brands like Apple, Intel, Sony, Nokia and Research in Motion would be to not source tantalum from the Congo area.

Executives noted that in recent years the DRC has supplied about 15% of the world’s tantalum while approximately another 40% of the world’s raw material production has been closed by the world’s financial crisis in recent years. Wars in the eastern Congo over the past decade have been financed in part by the region’s easily-mined, rich artisanal deposits of coltan used for tantalum and niobium production, casserite producing tin, wolframite producing tungsten and gold.

Globe is currently developing a niobium, uranium, tantalum and zircon project outside the region with restrictions under the act. That project, in central Malawi, is scheduled to begin production in 2013 at a rate of 3,000 tonnes per year of niobium metal with output of tantalum as a by-product.

Executives noted that other emerging tantalum projects with primary or co-production of the metal outside of the Congo region include a Commerce Resources Corp. project in Blue River, British Columbia; a Crevier Minerals/MDN Inc. project in Anita, Quebec; and a Gippsland Ltd. project in Abu Dabbab, Egypt.
Resource Investor.

“This bill offers a ray of hope to people in the DRC and around the world who suffer violence and human rights abuse at the hands of armed groups,” said Jennifer Krill, executive director of Washington-based Earthworks, a member of the Publish What You Pay campaign that promotes extractive industry transparency.

“This is a law that is going to affect virtually the entire U.S. manufacturing sector,” said Rick Goss, vice president of environment at the Information Technology Industry Council.

Ron Gilerman, managing director at A&R Merchants, which trades tantalum and other exotic metals, said the prices out of Brazil were at $80 per pound (on July 19th). He said another 50% increase in prices across the board in 2011 is in the offing.

Editor’s Note: One common theme throughout is that rare earth materials and metals are becoming more volatile in terms of price and availability.

Additional Resources: (1) Tantalum Capacitors: World Markets, Technologies & Opportunities: 2010-2015 ISBN # 1-893211-11-8 (© April 2010) (2) TANTALUM: Global Market Outlook: 2008-2013 ISBN # 0-929717-81-3 (2008)

Passive Component Conference in Shenzhen Results in Vibrant Discussion on Rare Earth and Related Dielectric Materials

Dennis Zogbi (R) of Passive Component Industry Magazine discusses the changing regulations in China for overvoltage protection with CEO Paul Tsar (shaking hands), and Sandy Chen of Bencent, a manufacturer of gas discharge tubes and thyristors located in Northern Shenzhen. Photo Courtesy of Elexcon Seminars, Shenzhen, China.

The Elexcon Passive Component Conference held in Shenzhen resulted in a vibrant multi-language discussion on the subject of Chinese production and consumption of passive electronic components.

The majority of the conference was dedicated to ceramics where consumption is the greatest in China and which is dominated by Japanese manufacturers, who also attended and presented at the conference. The conference organizers developed a venue that shed light on a complete Chinese supply chain for the ceramic capacitor industry, including domestically produced additives and advanced barium titanates and compositions for high capacitance MLCC production.

The mixture of attendees and presenters at the conference suggested an active, vibrant market for materials and manufacturing equipment, with some excellent discussions on the dielectrics, metals, kilns, furnaces, additives, termination dipping and plastic reel supply chain. The nature of the conversations and discussions centered on high capacitance MLCC and the materials for making the same; although it was apparent for the large OEMs and CEMs in attendance that the supply chain for tantalum was a concern for 2010. Even though the conference was dominated by presentations dedicated to the ceramic capacitor industry, audience questions invariably switched to double layer carbon supercapacitors, where attendants were fascinated with the recent bus contracts in China involving supercapacitor solutions.

In terms of component technology presenters, Murata, TDK and Taiyo Yuden each discussed variations on their core ceramic technology. Murata presented piezoelectric ceramics for automotive and audio applications, with the noted actuator applications for fuel injection an interesting and hot market segment among many vendors into the automotive space. TDK discussed their grand vision of “Super Eco Love” as it related to manufacturing electronic components and subassemblies; exacting that China seems genuinely interested in becoming less reliant on fossil fuels; and this seemed on the mind of all presenters, but was a focal of the TDK presentation, which was also keen to remind the audience that they had just merged with EPCOS AG to form the largest passive component manufacturer in the world. Taiyo Yuden focused on their LTCC antenna module technology and the myriad of emerging applications for communication technology in consumer audio and video imaging equipment.

Tyco Electronics also presented an excellent paper on the transition of USB port technology to a more stringent set of standards, and increasing the overvoltage and overcurrent circuit protection component requirements in ultra-small case sizes for applications in various USB connectors in multiple end-products in multiple industries. Tyco also noted the increased technical hurdles faced in maximizing signal integrity while not sacrificing circuit protection. The most fascinating presentation and that with the greatest audience response from attendees came from Bencent Electronics, which detailed their production of gas discharge tube arresters and thyristor components for telecom, datacom and video communications customers in China.

The most interesting portion of the presentation was how CEO Paul Tsar was working with Chinese government to establish Chinese standards for circuit protection similar to the standards in place today in the United States (UL) and Europe (IEC); but also developing specifications similar to the Rural Electrification Code as well as separate specifications for Railway Detection and Control Systems. The global ramifications and the potential impact on the global circuit protection component market was not lost on the audience, who asked many questions. Bencent also focused on their dramatic move toward green manufacturing and a shift toward cost saving and energy saving initiatives throughout the plant. As CEO Paul Tsar noted- “I absolutely love circuit protection. It is a complex challenge-but let the storm come more violently, Bencent is here to provide protection for sensitive electronics.”

A plant tour of the Bencent factory in Shenzhen revealed production of surface mount and multi-terminal gas discharge tubes; as well as a separate operation for thyristors. The company hads made a major investment in overvoltage test and measurement equipment as well as ceramic to metal materials processing; component research and development; and mass production.

Additional Resources: (1) Raw Material Usage and Supply Markets in The Passive Component Industry (Shenzhen PRC 2009)
Additional Resources: (1) Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) Supply To The Capacitor Industry: 2007-2014 Global Market Outlook ISBN # 1-893211-82-7 (2007) (2) CAPACITOR FOIL: Global Market Outlook: 2008- 2013 ISBN # 0-929717-85-6 (2008) (3) Ceramic Dielectric Materials: World Markets, Technologies & Opportunities: 2008-2013 ISBN # 0-929717-76-7 (2008) (4) TANTALUM: Global Market Outlook: 2008-2013 ISBN # 0-929717-81-3 (2008) (5)
Polypropylene Supply To The Capacitor Industry: 2007-2014 Global Market Outlook ISBN # 1-893211-83-5 (2007)

WTO Complaint Involves Key Raw Materials For Passive Components

On June 23, 2009 The USA and the European Union filed separate complaints with the World Trade Organization (WTO) alleging that China is unfairly benefiting domestic industries by restricting exports of coke, bauxite, fluorspar, magnesium, manganese, silicon metal, silicon carbide, yellow phosphorus and zinc. On June 24th the Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded by saying that export restrictions on these metals were in the interests of protecting the environment and limiting the depletion of natural resources, and in accordance with WTO rules. Bauxite, Manganese and Zinc are important materials for the passive component industry, with bauxite the most important- being consumed in both resistor substrates (as alumina) and in the anode and cathode foils of aluminum electrolytic capacitors. Manganese is used as the cathode material in the majority of tantalum capacitors produced; and zinc is the primarily metal used in varistors and in lightning arresters.

Additional Resources For This Story: Additional Resources: (1) Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) Supply To The Capacitor Industry: 2007-2014 Global Market Outlook ISBN # 1-893211-82-7 (2007) (2) CAPACITOR FOIL: Global Market Outlook: 2008- 2013 ISBN # 0-929717-85-6 (2008) (3) Ceramic Dielectric Materials: World Markets, Technologies & Opportunities: 2008-2013 ISBN # 0-929717-76-7 (2008) (4) TANTALUM: Global Market Outlook: 2008-2013 ISBN # 0-929717-81-3 (2008) (5) Polypropylene Supply To The Capacitor Industry: 2007-2014 Global Market Outlook ISBN # 1-893211-83-5 (2007)