On March 27, 2012, Prof. Michael Pecht will deliver the keynote presentation at the CARTS International 2012 conference at Bally’s Resort in Las Vegas, NV. Prof. Pecht’s presentation will shed new light on electronics product counterfeiting and explore solutions to reduce the amount of counterfeit electronics entering U.S. markets and critical products and systems. CARTS International 2012 will run from March 26 to March 29 and is the most comprehensive passive electronic components technology conference. It is sponsored by the Electronics Components Industry Association (ECIA). Conference topics include harsh environments, reliability, alternative energy, nano-materials, polymers, and embedded and integrated processes. The conference will be of particular interest to technical personnel that interact with these technologies and applications on a daily basis. More information is available at the ECIA website.

At the Summit on the Global Agenda 2011 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, hosted on October 11 and 12th 2011-the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Emerging Technologies asked some of the world’s leading minds within the entire GAC Network which technology trends would have the greatest impact on the state of the world in the near future. For the fourth consecutive year, over 700 members of the Network of Global Agenda gathered at the Summit to address over 70 areas, and comprise the most relevant experts from academia, business, civil society and government.  The results of this survey were published on February 15th in the World Economic Forum’s Blog. Item number 8 illustrated here notes “High energy density power systems”, including “supercapacitors”

8. High energy density power systems-“Better batteries are essential if the next generation of clean energy technologies are to be realized. A number of emerging technologies are coming together to lay the foundation for advanced electrical energy storage and use, including the development of nanostructured electrodes, solid electrolysis and rapid-power delivery from novel supercapacitors based on carbon-based nanomaterials. These technologies will provide the energy density and power needed to supercharge the next generation of clean energy technologies.”

For more information on capacitor markets, technologies & opportunities, see Paumanok Publications, Inc. Website

Paumanok Publications, Inc. customers in the financial sector now have an opportunity to access Paumanok market research reports on the worldwide capacitor, resistor, inductor, circuit protection and related materials industries via the new BMART platform- Bloomberg’s new premium research, data and news portal.  A distribution agreement between Paumanok Publications, Inc. and Bloomberg L.P went into affect in September.  The non-exclusive arrangement brings Paumanok’s line of advanced market research reports to Bloomberg’s international customer base of analysts and investors in the financial community. To learn more, contact Dennis M. Zogbi at Paumanok Publications, Inc,  dennis@paumanokgroup.com; or visit www.paumanokgroup.com

Key findings of a new market study by Paumanok Publications, Inc entitled “Ceramic Capacitors: World Markets, Technologies & Opportunities: 2012-2017 ISBN # 1-893211-25-8” forecasts a 7% global drop in worldwide ceramic capacitor receipts for the fiscal year ending March 2012 due to excess inventories in the supply chain and a slowdown in demand from key end-use markets; however, the long term outlook for the key passive component remains robust. The following figure (Figure 1) illustrates global revenues by quarter for ceramic capacitor manufacturers who are pure plays in the space .  The chart illustrates a a slowdown in the market for December 2011 quarter and the March 2012 quarter resulting in a 7% year-over-year market slowdown overall for ceramic capacitor consumption worldwide for FY 2012 (Year ending March).

Figure 1: Top Four Ceramic Capacitor Manufacturers: Sales Trend By Quarter: 2008-2012 (In Millions of USD)

Impact of Recent Events On The Value of Ceramic Capacitor Shipments for FY 2012

There have been some recent events that have impacted the ceramic capacitor market and its global value of consumption for FY 2012.  These include the following:

Quarterly Ceramic Capacitor Shipment Data For FY 2012:

The actual reporting for Murata, TDK, Taiyo Yuden, Kyocera/AVX, Walsin , Vishay and Yageo for the December 2011 quarter shows a clear quarter-to-quarter downturn guidance from Kemet and Vishay; as well as forecasting from the major Japanese vendors- Murata, TDK, Taiyo Yuden and Kyocera indicate a significant slowdown in quarterly revenues for the March 2011 quarter due to a severe slowdown in demand brought about by higher than anticipated inventories in the distribution channel.

Impact of Flooding in Thailand:

The impact of the Thailand floods which impacted the market in 2011 and which persist in 2012 was primarily of great impact to the hard disc drive industry for computer and game console markets worldwide.  The inability for the computer manufacturers to obtain hard disc drives in turn caused computer companies to refuse shipments of other components, including ceramic capacitors, that were not needed because production was curtailed.

While there was no reports of any damage to any major capacitor factories in Thailand (Murata maintains a factory there), a major tantalum capacitor factory- NEC Tokin was wholly destroyed, as was the tantalum factory of Rohm Company Limited, both of whom had major share in ultra-small case size tantalum chips that are readily replaced by high capacitance ceramic chip capacitors.  Regardless, most customers in handsets that consume ultra-small case size tantalum chips found alternative vendors- primarily AVX and Nichicon.

Impact of Tohuku Japan Quake:

The impact of the great Tohoku Japan earthquake on the ceramic capacitor supply chain was in fact quite severe.  The impact was not directly on the capacitor manufacturers themselves, but on two major vendors of key raw materials- Nippon Chemical Industrial (Barium Compounds) and Sakai Chemical (Titanium Materials) which are used to produced barium titanate and other titanate materials which are the key building blocks for ceramic capacitors.  The two vendors that were impacted are critical for their ability to manufacture nanotechnology type materials consumed in the production of high capacitance chip capacitors.  The affect on these two factories was severe and impacted the supply chain not only in Japan, but in Korea, Europe and the USA as well as almost all ceramic capacitor vendors source these two factories.  Through major effort though, the impact on the supply chain was contained as the ceramic capacitor manufacturers worked closely with the materials suppliers to get their materials operations back up and running without any major impact on the supply chain.  The immediate impact on the supply chain occurred in April 2011 as customers, fearing they would not get parts for the holiday season, purchased extra ceramic capacitors to stock up on inventories.  This caused a spike in buying in April and May 2011, but by June the buying spree had subsided.  This extra-inventory in the supply chain worked against the ceramic capacitor manufacturers in the December quarter of 2011.

Impact of The European Economic Crisis:

The European economic crisis has negatively impacted the economies of Iceland, Greece, Portugal, and Ireland and created austerity economies in the UK, Italy and France.  This is in fact the impact of the reach of various banks into the financial activities of multiple countries.  Still, the major consumer of components in Europe is Germany, and they have not been as damaged as other nations due to their bear hold on the European automotive market, which remains a growth sector.  Regardless we expect Europe to remain overall flat with respect to component consumption in FY 2013, and to have had a negative impact on the demand cycle in the December 2011 quarter and the March 2012 quarter of the fiscal year.

Impact of Excess Distributor Inventory Levels:

Ceramic capacitor inventories at the major capacitor distributors (Avnet, Arrow, TTI, Future, DigiKey and World Peace Group) have remained at higher levels than usual due to the series of events which have impacted the market since April 2011.  Early indications in 2012 suggest that the distributors will begin purchasing again in March 2012 or sometime in the June quarter, depending upon the level of consumer demand.  The only end-use markets that remain regionally strong are the automotive markets and the specialty markets, however, these only account for 16% of demand combined and are not significant enough to change the pattern of demand.  Demand from handsets, computers and TV sets is required for full growth in ceramic capacitor consumption to continue. This is only a matter of time.

Outlook Remains Robust: 2012-2017

Regardless of the recent downturn impacting the market; the study also predicts that demand for ceramic capacitors will pick up again in FY 2013 and continue to grow at high single digit rates until FY 2015 to satisfy pent up demand for end-products.  In The current March 2012 quarter, demand remains low because of the seasonal slowdown in production of wireless handsets, the single largest consumer of MLCC in the world; and the computer markets continue to remain lackluster driven largely by a lack of key components, specifically hard drives due to the effects of the flooding in Thailand.  Also demand from the TV set sector has waned largely as a result of a dramatic drop in production of CRT monitors in the 2012 FY.  However within a few quarters it is predicted that these problems will iron themselves out.  Positive signs of growth include the automotive sector, which has not slowed down at all, and is predicted to grow by more than 6% in unit sales in FY 2013.  Also the growth in demand for “Smartphones” which have considerably higher content of ceramic capacitors when compared to traditional phones will grow as a result of Apple’s role out in China and the fact that Smartphones have considerable room for growth in order to displace the majority of traditional phones currently on the market.  Also, the TV set market is about to undergo a substantial change in  demand, first of all because inventories are extremely low for flat panel displays and feature rich designs, including 3D TV, are about to hit the market.  The computer market is experiencing inner turmoil as tablets and ultra-books continue to find their niche at the expense of desktop and notebook computers; however the rapid growth in tablet demand, and the expected doubling of output for FY 2013 offsets the fact that they have lower component counts when compared to desktop and notebook computers.  Niche markets for ceramic capacitors, where value-added and application specific component consumption remains strong include the oil & gas industry and medical electronics.  Taken collectively, the conclusion is one of anticipated growth over the next five years to 2017.

Figure 2: Forecasted AAG in Worldwide Ceramic Capacitor Revenues: FY2012-2017

Source: Paumanok Publications, Inc. “Ceramic Capacitors: World Markets, Technologies & Opportunities: 2012-2017 ISBN # 1-893211-25-8  (February 2012)”

Demand from the handset, computer and TV set business will fuel growth over the next five years, with the rapid conversion to smartphones, tablet computing and 3D TV sets driving demand for MLCC.

This is a market research analysis that covers the $10 billion global market for ceramic capacitors by type and configuration. The market research analysis analyzes historical trends in terms of global consumption value, volume and pricing for ceramic capacitors and forecasts their global consumption to 2017. Market segmentation is broken down into demand by configuration- MLCC, SLC, MLC axial, MLC radial and chip array; demand by performance (X7R, X5R, Y5V, NPO, X8R Other,); demand by MLCC case size (01005, 0201, 0402, 0603, 0805, 1206, 1210 and above); demand by world region and key consuming country (China, Japan, Germany, USA, Korea, Singapore, Mexico, Philippines, Malaysia, Brazil). Market shares are given on a year-over-year basis for the top 23 manufacturers from 2008-2012; and quarterly market shares are also given  for the top tier manufacturers. Market shares are also assessed by world region. Ceramic capacitor  consumption volume in key end products is also addressed, including handsets, notebooks, desktop computers, tablets and ultrabooks, TV sets, automobiles, other consumer AV equipment and industrial and specialty electronics is also addressed; as is consumption by end-use market segment, including wireless telecommunications, computing, consumer AV, automobiles, power supplies, telecom infrastructure, defense electronics, medical electronics, lighting ballasts, instrumentation and oil and gas electronics. Additional market breakdowns are given for high capacitance MLCC versus picofarad capacitors. A technology overview and technology trend assessment, as well as a segment on costs to produce ceramic capacitors is also covered. Forecasts based upon type, configuration, capacitance, performance, end-use market segment and key consuming country to 2017. ISBN # 1-893211-25-8 (Published February 2012, 177 pages, 99 Figures). For more information

This market research report covers the global market for metal oxide varistors including zinc oxide disc varistors, multilayered chip varistors (MLV) and chip varistor arrays. Global market demand is shown in terms of value and volume based upon type (surface mount versus disc); demand by application- ESD versus overvoltage protection; demand by end-use market segment in wireless handsets, automotive electronic subassemblies, industrial power electronics, line voltage equipment and lighting ballasts, and other consumer electronics markets.   A technology overview of varistors is included in the study with construction methods, raw materials and processing; as well as the relationship of varistors to other circuit protection and passive components.  A look at key standards and recommendations that drive the regional markets for varistors is also included, as are key market trends that are impacting the varistor market inlcuding component usage, integration, mergers & acquisitions; as well as emerging market opportunities and opportunities in emerging economies.  The global market overview includes a historical look at the global value and unit volume of consumption on a worldwide basis as well as pricing trends over time.  The study breaks out the technical configurations of chip varistors based upon case size, and clamping voltage.  An analysis of the high voltage disc varistor business is also addressed.  Sales and market shares are given for major vendors.  Market growth is shown by year in value and volume and by component configuration. As well as forecasted demand by end-use market segment and the final forecast analysis includes an assessment of growth in emerging versus established economies   151 pages. Published January 2012. ISBN # 1-893211-34-7 (2012).  Learn More…

This global market research analysis covers electrical & electronic fuse markets, including solid chip fuses, miniature glass cartridge fuses, automotive blade fuses, radial leaded micro fuses, industrial grade power fuses and polymer PTC resettable fuses.  The study addresses global value, volume and pricing for electrical and electronic fuses, including historical data and forecasts to 2016; demand by end-use market segment; demand by type; demand by world region; and market shares for the leading vendors.  Competition is also given based upon end-markets in digital electronics, line voltage/power and automotive segments. The study makes forecasts to 2016 based upon type of fuse, end market consumption and world region with a special look at demand for fuses in emerging versus established economies.  Profiles of 32 known electrical and electronic fuse vendors from around the world.  176 Pages, Published January 2011. See Table of Contents for complete details (View Contents).

This study covers the global markets for TVS diodes, or “Transient Voltage Surge Protection Components” and includes zener diodes, silicon avalanche diodes and thyristor component technology.  The study includes a technology overview that describes each component type; a section on international standards and regulations that govern TVS diodes and a detailed analysis of global markets for TVS diodes by t

ype, including value, volume and average pricing; historical rates of demand; pricing comparison, consumption by end-use market segment in digital electronics, power and automotive segments, including sub-categories in handsets, computers, home theatre, telecom infrastructure, power and industrial markets, specialty segments and automotive electronic subassemblies.  An analysis of consumption for TVS diodes by type and world region is included, as well and vendor market shares and competitive analysis for each component type.  Forecasts are given to 2016 by component type, world region and end-use market segment.  An analysis of 42 vendors selling zener, SAD and thyristor circuit protection component technologies.  Published December 2011. 171 Pages. For More Information…

Gas discharge tubes were first introduced in the 1940s as defense related components and then introduced as surge protection devices for the telecommunications industry in the 1960s to remedy the drawbacks of carbon block arresters. In the 1990’s the boom in telecommunications equipment equated to increased demand for gas discharge tubes increased worldwide, primarily for residential station class protector lines for cable television (coaxial) connections.

Three-Terminal Gas Discharge Tube Arrester

Between 2003 and 2011 there was a worldwide resurgence in interest in gas tubes; and this interest continues to grow because of the inherent low capacitance and low inductance gas tubes offer.  These attributes are important because the GDT does not impart unwanted signals, which is important for efficient transmissions of large amounts of information over coax or twisted pair lines.  The use of gas discharge tubes will become more important as residences and business worldwide receive increasingly larger amounts of data- especially combined video, sound and number data over the next ten years.  Based upon this promise of growth, Paumanok Publications, Inc. has released a new market research report entitled “Gas Discharge Tube Arresters: World Markets, Technologies & Opportunities: 2011-2016.” To capitalize on the growing market for gas discharge tube arresters in sensitive telecommunications and power equipment, the Paumanok study recommends that GDT vendors vertically integrate their gas tube arrester components into molded protectors and connectors to increase profitability.

Surge Protectors and Connectors (Vertical Integration of GDT Technology):

Gas tube arresters are enabling circuit protection technology.  Therefore, in addition to being sold as individual components for printed circuit board mounting (surface mount arresters or two and three terminal across the line arresters), gas tube arresters are also sold to manufacturers of surge protectors and coaxial cable connectors, who in turn, house the gas tube into an advanced surge protector device or connector that can be more readily mounted by the customer.  The three-terminal gas tube arrester is the basic starting point for vertical integration.  Molded protector solutions include the 3-point and 5 point plastic molded plug-in protectors which will contain gas discharge tube arresters and PTC thermistors for a combination of overvoltage and overcurrent protection of overhead and underground power lines.  Another market for vertical integration is the station class protector Station class protectors are usually employed at the point of demarcation at the service entrance to customer residences or businesses.  Another market for vertical integration of the gas tube arrester components are in N-PE Arresters (DIN Rail- In TT and TN-C-S systems the N-PE arrester, or DIN Rail arrester, is installed between the neutral and the protective ground line where the device is exposed to the maximum of the lightning surge currents from all exposed lines. Another vertical product play for GDT arresters is mounting in coaxial cable connectors, which in turn are usually consumed in outside plant applications such as antennas and transmitters where exposure to frequency lighting strikes is part of the application environment.

Other Growth Markets for GDT Arrester Components: 2011-2016

The new market study on gas discharge tube arrester components also identifies the value and volume of global consumption for these specialty circuit protection components and forecasts consumption to 2016.   The study also analyzes the product offering from 15 major vendors of gas tube arresters in surface mount, two and three terminal configurations.  The study addresses demand by breakdown voltage, by form factor, by configuration and by case size; and also breaks down component application by vendor.

The study forecasts that the global markets for gas tube arresters will continue to grow in demand between 2012 and 2016 primarily because of their low capacitance and inductance which will become more importance for the transmission of video signals.

Additionally there will be growth primarily as a result of increased demand for infrastructure equipment consumed in emerging economies, primarily the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China).  Demand for gas tube arresters consumed in consumer electronics will also increase as a result of the added value of low capacitance contained in the gas tube arrester, and we expect it to become a preferred product for applications in flat panel television sets, cable set top boxes and game consoles.  Other markets will rebound more slowly, especially those tied to new home sales (such as large home appliances and alarm systems).

“Gas Discharge Tube Arresters: World Markets, Technologies & Opportunities: 2011-2016.”