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Global Passive Component (Capacitor, Inductor, Resistor) Market and Lead Times in FY2013

April 19, 2012 By Brent Leave a Comment

Based on industry expert estimates*, global market dollar value for FY2012 (ending March 31) is expected to decrease by 7%.  The decrease correlates with the earthquake in Tohoku in March of 2011 and flooding in Thailand in October 2012.  Market numbers are expected to come back in line in the June quarter when inventories will require replenishing to satisfy supply chain demand. (*Source: Paumanok Publications, Inc.)

Raw materials providers are increasingly the links in the supply chain to keep an eye on.  Their ability to recover from damaged facilities in the wake of the natural disasters will play a big role in the ability for manufacturers to meet demand in the coming year(s).    Material providers key to the supply chain include:   electrolytic liquids, titanium materials, barium compounds and etched foils.

Highly correlated with the growth of electronic products is the growth of passive components including capacitors, resistors, and inductors. The increases in global demands and global markets for these products is also producing an increase in demand for passive components.  In fact, one might argue that increased functionality for consumers and the ever changing standards and product configurations is driving a greater increase in the need for passive components.  Markets that are expanding and driving increased demand for passives include, but are not limited to:  smartphones, tablet computers, automobiles, commercial aircraft, medical electronics, LED lighting and oil and gas services industries around the world.  These market expansions are negatively affected by the economic situation of many large countries that consume electronics (US and Europe).  Net net, the market is expected to expand.

Watch as lead times are effected in 2013 by distributors around the world (including Asia) replenishing their inventories to fulfill their ever expanding global roles in supporting companies manufacturing consumer goods.

Related articles:

Passive Electronic Components: World Market Outlook: 2012-2017 (ISBN# 1-893211-99-1-2012)

TTI MarketEye

PRWeb

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Most Capacitor Lead Times Down in May but Specialty Capacitors Stretching Out

June 23, 2011 By Brent Leave a Comment

After the market responded to the earthquake in Japan by driving the lead times for MLCC devices up to more than 23 weeks in April, they dropped back roughly 18% to a little more than 20 weeks in May.  Market data was compiled and analyzed by the Paumanok Group and reported on by Passives Analyst Dennis Zogbi through the tti|MarketEye site.  Dennis points out that ceramic chip capacitors are used primarily in wireless handsets, computers and TV sets.

The one month increase in lead time is attributed to “panic buying” resulting from the concerns about availability given the potential impacts of the quake on the production facilities for the capacitors and supply of the raw materials used in the capacitor material production – primarily titanium dioxide and barium.

Interestingly, as noted by Dennis in the article, specialty capacitors did NOT follow the same sporadic buying behavior (or lead time trend).  In fact, they have incrementally increased in lead times on a monthly basis from approximately 13 weeks in January to approximately 18 weeks in May.  The insight provided for this counter-trend is that stimulus investments in power and energy related products is still flowing into the market.

For more information:
tti|Marketeye Article
TTI Lead Time Chart
Japan Earth Quake Summary

by Brent Ward

 

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Capacitor Lead Times For December Point Toward a Shifting High Tech Economy

January 14, 2011 By abtadmin Leave a Comment

Shifts in lead times for specific sub-components in the capacitor product groupings for December 2010 suggest a continued downward market trend for mass produced components consumed in digital electronics such as computers, handsets and TV sets; but an upward market trend in components consumed in power electronics.

December 2010 Capacitor Lead Time Update:

During the month of DECEMBER 2010, lead times for capacitors, otherwise known as the time it takes in weeks for a component to leave the factory and reach the customer, decreased for the third straight month- dropping by 6.2% to 20.4 weeks, but certainly moving in the opposite direction that the lead-time index has demonstrated all year. A 10% drop in lead times associated with tantalum capacitors, which have demonstrated extended lead times all year over fears of materials shortages, was the largest influencing factor in the overall drop in lead times for capacitors for the month of December 2010. Lead times for DC film capacitors, which have demonstrated extended lead times also due to a tightness in raw materials supply, dropped by 8.9% in December on a month-to-month basis. Lead times for ceramic capacitors dropped by 1.17% in December; while lead times for aluminum capacitors remained unchanged. On a trending note, and when viewed over an extended period of time, DC film capacitors and aluminum capacitors continue to trend upward pointing toward increased demand from the power and industrial segment; while tantalum, extended all year, and the most difficult dielectric to obtain, has relaxed its lead times again in December. Ceramic capacitors have been trending very stable over the extended view of lead times for the 2010 year.

Figure 1.1- Lead-Times For CAPACITORS BY DIELECTRIC (In weeks): 2010

Source: Paumanok Publications, Inc. All Rights Reserved- Capacitors: World Markets, technologies & Opportunities: 2011-2015 ISBN #0929717023

December: Capacitor Lead Time Trends By Dielectric: 2010

Tantalum Capacitors: December Lead Times: 2010

Lead times for tantalum capacitors, DECREASED for a second straight month as net new demand for the hard to find component slackened. Lead times for tantalum capacitors dropped by 10.44% marking the largest month-to-month decline in lead times for tantalum capacitors all year. Lead times for all types of tantalum capacitors regardless of type and configuration (or cathode type) declined. Lead times for molded case A chip and molded case C chip showed the largest drop in lead times for November. The primary end-markets for tantalum capacitors are computers, wireless handsets, video camcorders, digital cameras, automotive subassemblies and specialty electronics.

Figure 1.1 (A)- Lead-Times For TANTALUM (Ta205) CAPACITORS BY Case Size: 2010 (In Weeks}

Source: Paumanok Publications, Inc. All Rights Reserved- Capacitors: World Markets, technologies & Opportunities: 2011-2015 ISBN #0929717023

DC Film Capacitors: December Lead Times: 2010

Lead times for DC Film capacitors DC film capacitors are moving counterintuitive to market conditions are indicative of unusual factors influencing the supply chain. In this instance according to primary sources- it is a materials shortage related to ultra-thin metallized plastic film. The primary end-markets for DC film capacitors are power supplies, lighting ballasts and other line voltage related and specialty electronic equipment. In December we saw an increase in lead times for axial leaded designs, which implies movement in the lighting ballast industry. Snubbers, film chips and radial leaded designs relaxed in overall lead times in December, but remained at historically high levels- especially for snubber type capacitor capacitors used in power and industrial electronic systems.

Figure 1.1 (B)- Lead-Times For DC Film CAPACITORS BY Type: 2010 (In Weeks}

Source: Paumanok Publications, Inc. All Rights Reserved- Capacitors: World Markets, technologies & Opportunities: 2011-2015 ISBN #0929717023

Aluminum Capacitors: December Lead Times: 2010

Lead times for aluminum electrolytic capacitors, remained largely unchanged in December and November, after a substantial decline in October. Lead times for aluminum capacitors show a shift toward large capacitor demand from the power and industrial segment- and a slowdown in demand from the digital electronics segment. Aluminum capacitors have the unique distinction of being consumed in both electronic and electrical circuits, and therefore end product markets include TV sets, stereos, computers, power supplies, line voltage equipment and a variety of specialty end-use markets. In the power electronic side of the equation, aluminum capacitors are critical parts of power transmission and distribution equation and are critical components for use in power inverters. They are also critical components for motor start applications.

Figure 1.1 (C) Lead-Times For Aluminum Electrolytic CAPACITORS BY Type, By Month: 2010

Source: Paumanok Publications, Inc. All Rights Reserved- Capacitors: World Markets, technologies & Opportunities: 2011-2015 ISBN #0929717023

Note the lead time extension for snap-in aluminum and large can aluminum capacitors, leading us to believe that there is increased demand coming from the power and industrial segment of the market in the fourth quarter of CY 2010.

Ceramic Capacitors: December Lead Times 2010

Lead times for ceramic capacitors DECREASED again in December with the noted shift in the high capacitance MLCC, which had been steady all year; but trended downward in December, and the chart below reveals that ceramic capacitor lead-times have eased up steadily since June 2010 (since added capacity came on line in Korea and Japan at that very same time). The one product line- disc ceramic capacitors, which are used in high voltage power applications reveals activity in the power markets that is moving counterintuitive to the general mass markets in consumer electronics (computers, handsets, and TV sets all declining market demand in December continuing the general downward trend in digital electronics that we now expect to last through March 2011).

Note the largest case sizes have had longer lead times. This corresponds with higher CVg ceramic chip capacitors; which we also show as a separate line item in the table above and this indicates that higher CVg ceramic capacitors have much longer lead times when compared to the traditional lower picofarad MLCC. Overall however, the supply chain for ceramic capacitors, even though extended beyond its usual lead time levels of 9 weeks; are more readily available than the other dielectrics.

Specialty Ceramic Capacitors include a combination of unique configurations and types; including array, axial, radial; and application specific types for high voltage and high frequency applications; and is usually a reflection of demand in defense, medical, oilwell, mining and laboratory electronics. Please note that movement in this segment of the market in November and December 2010 suggests positive upward trend in power electronics market segment.

Figure 1.1 (D)- Lead-Times For CERAMIC CAPACITORS BY Case Size and Configuration, By Month: 2010

Source: Paumanok Publications, Inc. All Rights Reserved- Capacitors: World Markets, technologies & Opportunities: 2011-2015 ISBN #0929717023

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November Passive Component Market Index Reveals Downward Trend In Digital Electronics Segment; Upward Trend in Power

November 26, 2010 By Dennis Leave a Comment

Shifts in lead times for specific sub-components in the capacitor, resistor and inductor product groupings for November 2010 suggest a downward market trend for mass produced components consumed in digital electronics such as computers, handsets and TV sets; but an upward market trend in components consumed in power electronics.

During the month of NOVEMBER 2010, lead times for passive electronic components, otherwise known as the time it takes in weeks for a component to leave the factory and reach the customer, decreased for the second straight month- dropping by a modest 0.92% to 16.1 weeks, but certainly moving in the opposite direction that the lead-time index has demonstrated all year. In fact, lead times for capacitors and resistors decreased in November, while the time it takes for discrete inductors to reach the customer remained unchanged.

Graph 1.1 Lead-Times For Passive Electronic Components By Core Product Group (CRL): 2010

Lead-times for capacitors decreased by 1.54% month-to-month in November; while lead-times for resistors decreased by a 1.76% decrease during the same 30 day time period. However, lead-times for discrete inductors remained unchanged in November.

Graph 1.2 and Support Table: 30-Day Average Lead-Time in Weeks For Passive Electronic Components, Including Capacitors, Resistors and Inductors Combined

Capacitor Lead Time Trends By Dielectric: 2010

Tantalum Capacitors: November Lead Times: 2010
Lead times for tantalum capacitors, DECREASED for a second straight month as net new demand for the hard to find component slackened. Lead times for tantalum capacitors dropped by 10.44% marking the largest month-to-month decline in lead times for tantalum capacitors all year. Lead times for all types of tantalum capacitors regardless of type and configuration (or cathode type) declined. Lead times for molded case A chip and molded case C chip showed the largest drop in lead times for November. The primary end-markets for tantalum capacitors are computers, wireless handsets, video camcorders, digital cameras, automotive subassemblies and specialty electronics.

DC Film Capacitors: November Lead Times: 2010
Lead times for DC Film capacitors, INCREASED for a second straight month as materials shortages and increased unit demand continued the stretch in lead times. Lead times for DC film capacitors increased by 7.9% in November, after a 3.5% increase in October. The fact that DC film capacitors are moving counterintuitive to market conditions are indicative of unusual factors influencing the supply chain. In this instance according to primary sources- it is a materials shortage related to ultra-thin metallized plastic film. In November we noted an increase in lead times for SMD film chip capacitors; as well as a sharp increase in lead times for specialty film capacitors used in value-added and application specific markets. The primary end-markets for DC film capacitors are power supplies, lighting ballasts and other line voltage related and specialty electronic equipment.

Aluminum Capacitors: November Lead Times: 2010
Lead times for aluminum electrolytic capacitors, INCREASED in November, after a substantial decline in October. In fact, lead times for aluminum electrolytic capacitors increased by 2.5% in November, after a 5.4% decrease in October. Upon close inspection however, we also note that aluminum capacitors used for digital electronics applications, including radial leaded, vertical chip and conductive polymer chip remained unchanged in November, but the lead times for the larger screw terminal aluminum capacitors and the snap in type both increased. This points to increased demand from the power electronics side of the market. Aluminum capacitor applications in electronics include TV sets, stereos, computers, power supplies, line voltage equipment and a variety of specialty end-use markets. In the power electronic side of the equation, aluminum capacitors are critical parts of power transmission and distribution equation and are critical components for use in power inverters. They are also critical components for motor start applications.

Ceramic Capacitors: November Lead Times 2010
Lead times for ceramic capacitors DECREASED again in November, and the chart below reveals that ceramic capacitor lead-times have eased up steadily since June 2010 (since added capacity came on line in Korea and Japan at that very same time). Lead times for ceramic capacitors as a whole product group dropped by 0.94% in November. We note that MLCC of all case sizes and electrode types eased up again in November, but interestingly enough, the one product line- disc ceramic capacitors, which are used in high voltage power applications reveals activity in the power markets that is moving counterintuitive to the general mass markets in consumer electronics (computers, handsets, and TV sets all declining market demand in November, continuing the general downward trend in digital electronics that we now expect to last through March 2011).

Graph 1.3: Capacitor Lead Times In Weeks By Dielectric: 2010

Trends In Linear Resistor Lead Times: November 2010
The following table reveals the shift in lead times by resistor sub-type, with the most important change in November lead-time data for wirewound resistors, which shows a 4.5% increase month over month. This resistor product line is used primarily in power electronics applications and once again, taken in context with movement in the capacitor markets, we see a tactical upward movement in activity in the power segment, while all other primary segments, including applications in mass digital electronics, showed downward trending in November. In resistors, all other product lines other than wirewound resistors showed easing in lead times, or stability month to month. Thick film chip and thin film chip resistors each demonstrated a decrease in lead times, while nichrome, networks and metal oxide resistors (which each straddle the consumer and power markets) showed no change in lead times in November.

Graph 1.4: Linear Resistor Lead Times In Weeks By Type: 2010


Trends in Discrete Inductor Lead Times: November 2010
Lead times for all discrete inductor products remained unchanged in November. Both surface mount and throughole inductor configurations remained stable. However, viewed over time, we see that lead-times for all magnetic type components have remained at elevated levels all year. The majority of discrete inductors are consumed in digital electronic applications, including handsets, computers and TV sets, but a large percentage of wirewound and core inductors are also consumed in power applications.

Graph 1.5: Discrete Inductor Lead Times In Weeks By Dielectric: 2010

Passive Component Raw Material Price Index: Base Metals Go South, Precious Metals Go North In November 2010

The raw material index for passive electronic components showed a remarkable 12% decrease in November 2010, dragged down by price erosion for critical base metals, including nickel, copper, aluminum and zinc. Moving in the opposite direction in November was the precious metals, including palladium and silver, which showed month-to-month increases in price of 17% and 19% respectively. Ruthenium prices remained unchanged during the entire month of November at $175 per Toz.

Graph 1.6: Passive Component Raw Material Price Index

Tantalite, the ore manufactured in tantalum powder and wire consumed in tantalum capacitors is now confirmed at $122.00 per pound based upon the results of the auction by the Ethiopian Government during November 2010. The tantalite price now established at $122 per pound will cause another ripple affect up the tantalum capacitor supply chain, so we expect higher prices for tantalum chip capacitors in 2011.

Higher palladium and silver prices directly impact NPO type MLCC, which are largely still made with palladium bearing electrode and silver termination materials. This is a large ($1.5 billion) segment of the capacitor market and is important.

Lower prices for nickel, aluminum, copper and zinc have a larger impact on the capacitor, resistor and inductor segments, and this decline in feedstocks before new January 2011 materials contracts are signed, may increase profitability for some component vendors.

Summary and Conclusions:
Shifts in lead times for specific sub-components in the capacitor, resistor and inductor product groupings for November 2010 suggest a downward market trend for mass produced components consumed in digital electronics such as computers, handsets and TV sets; but an upward market trend in components consumed in power electronics.

A sharp decline in base metal prices in November should increase profitability in the aluminum electrolytic and high capacitance ceramics segment; but sharp price increases for precious metals- palladium and silver, should negatively impact profitability in the NPO type MLCC markets. Tantalite, now at an estimated $122 per pound, will impact tantalum capacitor pricing in 2011.

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Capacitors and Inductor Lead-Times Up; Resistors Down Through October 2010

November 8, 2010 By Dennis Leave a Comment

During the month of October 2010, lead times for capacitors and inductors increased, while the time it takes for resistors to reach the customer decreased (Graph 1.2). Lead-times for capacitors increased by 1.63% month-to-month in October; while lead-times for inductors increased by a notable 5.2% during the same 30 day time period. However, lead-times for resistors declined by a slight 0.6%, marking the first time in 2010 that any of the core passive component product groupings showed a slowdown.

Graph 1.2: Lead-Times For Passive Electronic Components By Core Product Group (CRL): 2010 Paumanok
Publications, Inc.

Lead Times In Weeks For Passive Components By Type: March 2010-October 2010

Lead Time From The Manufacturer To The Buyer For Capacitors, Resistors & Inductors: 2010 Index

Additional Resources: (1) Passive Electronic Components: World Market Outlook: 2010-2015 ISBN # 1-893211-99-1 (2010).
(2) Linear Resistors: World Markets, Technologies & Opportunities: 2009-2014 ISBN # 1-893211-24-X (7/2009)
(3) Discrete Inductors: World Markets, Technologies & Opportunities: 2009-2014 (ISBN# 1-893211-47-9)
(4) Circuit Protection Components: World Market Outlook: 2009-2014 ISBN # 1-893211-84-3 (2009) [Read more...]

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Passive Electronic Component Lead-Time Index Declines For The First Time In 2010.

November 8, 2010 By Dennis Leave a Comment

Lead-times for passive components, or the time measured in weeks for a factory to ship capacitors, resistors and inductors to the customer, decreased for the first time in October 2010 by 1.45% on a month-to-month basis (Graph 1.1). Each month since March (when PCI began publishing this chart) the index has increased- therefore the decrease in lead times marks a change in the market conditions- a slow down in net new demand for components.

Graph 1.1 30 Day Average Lead-Time in Weeks For Passive Electronic Components, Including Capacitors, Resistors and Inductors Combined. Paumanok Publications, Inc.

Time for Capacitor, Resistor and Inductor Components To Reach The Buyer

Lead Time Chart in Weeks for Passive Electronic Components: March-Oct 2010

Additional Resources: (1) Passive Electronic Components: World Market Outlook: 2010-2015 ISBN # 1-893211-99-1 (2010).
(2) Linear Resistors: World Markets, Technologies & Opportunities: 2009-2014 ISBN # 1-893211-24-X (7/2009)
(3) Discrete Inductors: World Markets, Technologies & Opportunities: 2009-2014 (ISBN# 1-893211-47-9)
(4) Circuit Protection Components: World Market Outlook: 2009-2014 ISBN # 1-893211-84-3 (2009)

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DC Film Capacitors: Shortages Continue To Surprise Industry- October 2010

October 24, 2010 By Dennis Leave a Comment

Lead times for DC film capacitors, which are used primarily in power supplies and lighting ballasts for filtering, interference suppression and snubbing increased by 3.8% on average in September on a month-to-month basis. Shortages of DC film capacitors continued to surprise the industry, with some end-users in the power supply industry reporting that lead-times for certain niche components (mostly high voltage snubbers) at more than 60 weeks. Lead times for axial leaded PET film capacitors and SMD chips (PPS and PEN) increased by 2 weeks on average in September. Primary sources in the industry report that the shortage of DC film capacitors is related to the tightened supply of thin metallized film used as the DC film dielectric; a situation compounded by the exit of Mitsubishi Polyester Materials GmbH from the plastic capacitor film supply chain.

Additional Resources: (1) Paper & Plastic FILM Capacitors: World Markets, Technologies & Opportunities: 2008-2013 ISBN # 0-929717-87-2 (2008).

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Tantalum Capacitors: Lead-Times Remain in Check For The First Time All Year

October 24, 2010 By Dennis Leave a Comment

Lead times for tantalum capacitors as a whole remained unchanged for the first time in September 2010 on a month-to-month basis; although at 34.6 weeks, supply of the high capacitance, small case size component remains elusive. During the month of September, lead times for ultra-small A case tantalum chip capacitors actually declined for the first time all year (from 24 to 23 weeks); however, this was offset by an increase in lead-times for conductive polymer type tantalum chips (lead times increased mostly in the EIA designated B case and the D case size configurations) which stretched out from 37 to 38 weeks.

Tantalum Capacitors: A Closer Look At Changing Lead Times: 2010

The molded chip D and B case size tantalum chip capacitors are leading the list of hard to get passive components in August 2010, with the large D case size chips typically consumed in the global computer and telecommunications infrastructure markets. The B case shortage is impacting both the standard manganese and the newer conductive polymer type tantalum chip capacitors. B case size chips are consumed in a variety of global markets, including consumer electronics (game consoles, LAN networks and digital cameras), and in the portable notebook and netbook computer markets.

The chart below illustrates the movement in the market as tantalum materials supply tightened, and demand increased from many end-markets simultaneously, including computer, telecom, networking and consumer AV markets. Smaller tantalum capacitors, such as the A case and low profile versions use less tantalum metal per part, and have shorter lead times. Lead times for tantalum capacitors are at the highest point in their 45 year history.

Tantalum Capacitor Lead Times By Configuration and Case Size Through August 2010

Tantalum Capacitor Lead Times By Configuration and Case Size Through August 2010


NOTE HOW A RAW MATERIAL SHORTAGE CAN AFFECT ALL CASE SIZES AT ONCE!
Graph 3.1: Extending lead times for tantalum capacitors are revealing. Since the problem is primarily raw material related, the entire product line is affected, with all product lines shifting upward except for the smallest parts, which consume the smallest amount of tantalum metal. The other interesting factor is that the B case size chip in both manganese and conductive polymer type are in very short supply.

Additional Resources: (1) Tantalum Capacitors: World Markets, Technologies & Opportunities: 2010-2015 ISBN # 1-893211-11-8 (© April 2010) (2) TANTALUM: Global Market Outlook: 2008-2013 ISBN # 0-929717-81-3 (2008)

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Passive Component Lead-Time Analysis: September 2009-

September 30, 2009 By Dennis Leave a Comment

Survey results are only as good as the information that goes into them. For this survey we sent emails to 14,007 contacts, of which 372 responded (2.7%). Each question in the survey allowed for respondents to make detailed comments regarding their answers, and these were most revealing. Also, the survey was prompted by one of the large wireless handset manufacturers contacting us and asking for feedback as to why they were experiencing extended lead-times for specific types of passive components. Subsequent research revealed that lead times for passive components had begun to increase in June 2009 and remained elevated until the survey was launched in September 2009. At this time lead-times remain elevated. Even though only 372 respondents contributed to the survey, they represented the majority of the major distributors of passive components, and a substantial number of the larger OEMs and CEMs in Asia, Europe and the United States who buy passive components. We also had a significant response rate among passive component vendors who gave us insight into the reasoning as to why lead times were extending.

Component Lead-Times: Survey Conclusions:

Certainly the consistent reply among respondents was that component lead-times for high capacitance MLCC between 2.2 and 100 microfarad were extending at a rate that exceeded other parts. The reader must remember that MLCC is used in almost every printed circuit board in the world. The extension rates differed among respondents from 9 weeks to as long as 20 weeks, and this we learned from respondents’ comments was the result of extended lead times from specific vendors. Chinese vendors of high capacitance MLCC were quick to point out that lead-times from Japan were greater then those from China. The other consistency was for surface mount V-chip aluminum electrolytic capacitors in the 4x5mm, 5x2mm, 5x11mm and 6.3x11mm case sizes, and for both conductive polymer type, and manganese type chip tantalum capacitors. In the resistor commodity, the results were not as uniform, although the majority of respondents reported extended leadtimes for traditional resistor networks and integrated passive devices; and in the inductor commodity, the clear component with the greatest leadtimes was the SMD wirewound inductor and the ferrite core. One common thread among all of these parts is that they are consumed in notebook and netbook computers, which seem to be somewhat insulated from the global economic downturn as demand for both product lines continues to grow worldwide. Lead-times for circuit protection components remained uncertain, although the clear response from multiple survey participants was that thyristor lead times were increasing at a rate that exceeded other overvoltage and overcurrent protection components. However, it should be noted that at Paumanok Publications, Inc. the demand for research related to chip varistor and TVS diode for ESD protection in portable electronics is at an all time high. The reason for this is the proliferation of advanced touchscreens throughout portable digital electronics markets.

Reasons for Extended Lead-Times:

In the survey results we expected more raw material shortages to have had an impact on the ability for manufacturers to produce, although this was not the case, except for tantalum, which is not yet in short supply, but there is anticipation that there will be a tantalum ore shortage in the coming months. The common thread was poor visibility and the reluctance for many component manufacturers to expend resources on fixed assets without fully knowing what the future holds in store for the supply chain. The majority of respondents noted that there was not enough personnel in place to meet demand, and that this was a result of poor visibility, which in turn was the result of the predominant “just-in-time” delivery model that has effused itself in the industry during the global economic downturn. The result therefore is extended lead-times. An interesting addendum to this came from China, where more then one respondent noted that it was getting more difficult for manufacturer’s to attract workers to locations outside their home towns. Finally, it was noted more than once among OEM and CEM respondents to the survey that they believed that by extending leadtimes, component manufacturers were in fact “artificially” attempting to raise prices.

Outlook:

The survey results regarding the outlook for leadtimes is mixed. The majority of respondents believe leadtimes will either remain extended or increase even further, which is a logical conclusion since the majority of respondents also believe that the extension of leadtimes is a result of poor visibility and that the market is in “just-in-time” delivery mode. Therefore, it is likely that October will see an increase in component lead- times, especially for high cap MLCC, tantalum chips, SMD wirewound inductors, resistor networks and vertical chip aluminum electrolytic capacitors.

Additional Resources For This Story: (1) Passive Electronic Components: World Market Outlook: 2010-2015 ISBN # 1-893211-99-1 (2010).

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